The Gaffer · Pre-Tournament Column
72 Picks. Every Group.
France to Win It.
Published before a ball is kicked. On the record.
Right. Seventy-two picks logged. Every scoreline, every group, every knockout stage, all the way to the Final. France to lift it, since you're asking. They have Mbappe, they have the squad depth, and they have the one thing most sides going into a World Cup don't: a clear plan. Call me wrong in July.
But first, the group stage. Twelve groups, forty-eight teams, and at least three that have no business being here. Let me go through them.
Group A
USA at home should make this comfortable for them. Morocco are the side I'd watch: Africa's best, and they proved it in Qatar. I've got both through. Guatemala will be gone before anyone notices they arrived.
Group B
Brazil. I'll say it plainly: I've been backing Brazil to disappoint since 2006 and they keep delivering. Talented squad, chaotic structure. Still going through, but not convincingly. Argentina in the same half of the bracket would be ideal for a proper test. I want to see them tested.
Group C
England. I've called three wins. I've also called them to bottle at least one quarter-final moment because that's what they do. The squad is good. The tournament record is a different conversation.
Group D
Germany are back. Sorted the defensive structure, got pace in behind. I've got them top of their group without breaking a sweat. Watch out for Japan, who I expect to beat whoever they're not supposed to beat.
Group E
Spain. Technically the best team in the tournament, possibly. Possession football that wins games cleanly. I've got them through easily. The question is whether they have the killer instinct when it goes to extra time.
Group F
Portugal without Ronaldo at the peak of his powers is a different Portugal. Bernardo Silva can carry this team further than people think. Netherlands are dangerous. I've got both through, nervous about neither.
Group G
Belgium's golden generation are done. New Belgium: younger, faster, less certain. They'll qualify but they won't win anything. Colombia are interesting here. I've called an upset in this group. You'll see which one.
Group H
France. I'll keep it short because I've said it already: this is the group they stroll through. The real test starts in the knockouts.
Groups I to L
The remaining groups have a mixture of African, Asian, and CONCACAF qualifiers who will make the group stage interesting before the European and South American sides take over. Senegal and South Korea are the sides I'd back to go deep from these groups. Both have pace, both are organised, and both have at least one player capable of winning a knockout game on their own.
My five bold calls
- France win the Final. Called it. On the record.
- Germany beat England if they meet in the quarters. England aren't ready for that level of press.
- At least one giant killing in the Round of 32. Japan, South Korea, or Senegal over a top-ten side.
- Maignan wins the Golden Glove. Not Courtois, not Alisson. The Frenchman becomes the story of the tournament.
- Spain go out on penalties to someone they should beat. They always do.
All 72 picks are live. Every scoreline, every confidence rating, every piece of reasoning. Disagree with me? Good. Enter your picks. That's the whole point.
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