Croatia

The Gaffer says

“Right, listen son, Croatia's ceiling is the semis again 'cos that midfield's proper world-class — Modric pulling strings, smooth as you like. My honest worry, mate? The legs. Them boys are knackered, getting on a bit, and you can't run a tournament on memories. Gut says they overperform then run outta gas. Verdict: dark horse, but the clock's ticking.”